Zhu Chenghu's blunder on nuclear bombs

雨寒 · 发表于 2005-7-23 14:31

By Charles F. Hawkins 
霍金斯 
As rational humans we generally like to think that everyone can get along in a peaceful way while seeking better lives for our children and ourselves. 
But once in a while an event or utterance by a national official brings us back to reality - the world is not inherently a peaceful place. 
Such was the case this past Thursday when Major General Zhu Chenghu, a dean at the prestigious National Defence University in Beijing, coolly stated that China would have to resort to the use of nuclear weapons in a war with the United States over Taiwan. 
So much for the “peaceful rise of China.” 
Although an official spokesman for Beijing repeatedly emphasised that Zhu's comments were his “personal opinion,” there is ample reason to believe that Zhu is not the only senior officer in China who holds this viewpoint. 
I know Zhu Chenghu. We had dinner together two years ago with another PLA general. He's a soft-spoken, logical man, and has an excellent command of English, one of the reasons he supervises instruction at NDU for English-speaking foreign military students. 
His words about using nuclear weapons against the US in a war over Taiwan were not a mistake. 
Since before March 2004, when Taiwan held national elections what were highly contested on several points—Chen Shui-bian won by a narrow margin and his constitutional reform initiative failed to receive enough votes to count - I have detected among Chinese defence analysts and military elites a growing concern over war with the United States over Taiwan. 
That concern has been expressed to me in two ways: one, China will go to war against Taiwan if it declares independence; and two, if the United States intervenes, China has the capability to win, regardless of US capabilities. 
But win by using what? Nuclear weapons? 
Such an idea, if enacted, is sure to backfire and wreak devastation on China. US planners in Pacific Command in Hawaii take such wartime considerations seriously, and make war plans accordingly. 
First use of nuclear weapons by China in a war with the United States would be met with overwhelming response. 
I shudder to think of the consequences. Shanghai, a city I have come to love and appreciate, would be wiped from the coast of the sea. Beijing, a world-class city that will host the 2008 Olympics, would cease to exist. 
More importantly, I would lose many friends - people in China whom I care about deeply. 
What must Zhu Chenghu have been thinking? 
For one thing he was thinking about the many wargames that Chinese defence analysts and PLA planners have conducted to study consequences of a nuclear war with the United States. 
These wargames, conducted in secret and unpublicised to the Chinese public, explore different “what if” scenarios. What these wargames don't explore is the attitude of the American people if they are attacked, especially by nuclear weapons. 
Nothing would keep Americans from seeking a full measure of retribution. 
One is left to ponder why Zhu Chenghu would make such a pronouncement in the first place. Clearly he understands the American psyche and knows enough about military affairs to realise that PACOM has the ability to dominate China in either a conventional war or a nuclear one. 
It can only be that the general was speaking on behalf of other factions in Beijing, factions that want to send a message to the United States over their deep-seated desire to gain control over Taiwan. 
I'm sorry that the man I enjoyed dinner with feels this way, or, if he does not, that he was ordered to make such an outrageous statement in the first place. 
The policy of Washington on the matter of China-Taiwan is very simple and direct: If China attacks Taiwan, the United States will help defend it. This includes a nuclear war, if it comes to that. 
And I hope for all our sakes that it does't. 
The writer is a senior defence analyst in Washington, D.C.and a frequent visitor to Asia. He contributes this article to Lianhe Zaobao. 
朱成虎关于核武器的狂言 
　　一般有理性的人都希望人们能够和平共处，并为自己和下一代谋求更美好的生活。然而，一些事件或者一些官员的讲话，有时候会让我们回到现实——世界和平不是理所当然的事。 
　　著名的中国国防大学防务学院院长朱成虎少将上星期四泰然表示，一旦因为台湾问题同美国发生战争，中国将使用核武器对付美国。 
　　看来我们就别再谈什么中国的“和平崛起”了。 
　　中国外交部发言人一再表示朱成虎的谈话纯属“个人意见”。但是我们有足够的理由相信朱成虎并不是唯一持有这种看法的中国高级官员。 
　　我认识朱成虎，我们曾经在两年前同另一名解放军将官一起吃晚餐。他是一个声音柔和、思路清晰的人。另外，他的英文能力也很强，所以他的工作是负责监督学院里说英语的外籍学生的课程。他说中国会用核武器对付美国的谈话绝对不是失言。 
　　自从台湾去年3月备受争议的总统选举后——宪法改革计划并没有获得足够支持的陈水扁以微差获胜——我就察觉到中国国防分析人员和解放军高层越来越关注中国会因为台湾同美国开战的问题。 
　　他们向我表示，如果台湾宣布独立，中国将会对台湾动武。如果美国出手干预，不论美国的军事力量如何，中国也有能力取胜。 
　　但是中国要靠什么取胜呢？使用核武器吗？ 
　　这样的想法如果真的付诸行动，结果将会适得其反，使中国蒙受严重的破坏。 
　　在夏威夷的美军太平洋总部的军事策划人员，非常认真看待这类战时必须考虑的因素，也会提出应变的作战计划。中国如果在同美国作战时先行使用核武器，美国将会作出强有力的反击。 
　　我不敢想像后果将会如何。我喜欢和欣赏的上海将会从地面上消失，将于2008年主办奥运会的世界级都市北京也将不复存在。更重要的是，我将失去一些我非常关心的中国朋友。 
　　朱成虎的脑子里到底在想些什么呢？可以肯定的是，他在思考中国军事分析人员和解放军军事策划人员对于和美国发生核战争的纸上演习的结果。这些不为中国民众所知的秘密演习，目的是探讨可能出现的各种状况。 
　　不过，演习没有考虑到的是美国人受到攻击，特别是核武器攻击时，会有什么反应。我想没有什么可以阻止美国人采取严厉的报复行动。 
　　朱成虎究竟为什么要发表这样的谈话呢？他应该很清楚美国人的心态，也应该知道不论是常规战争或者核战争，美军太平洋总部都有能力制服中国。 
　　唯一的可能是朱成虎是在替北京的某些派系表态，这些人要向美国传达他们要控制台湾的决心。 
　　对于和我共进晚餐的朋友有这样的看法，或者没有这样的看法却被迫发表这样的言论，我感到非常遗憾。 
　　华盛顿对台海局势的立场是非常简单和直截了当的：如果中国攻击台湾，美国将会帮助台湾自卫，这包括在必要的情况下进行核战争。 
　　当然，为了大家好，我希望这样的情况不会出现。 
　　·作者Charles F. Hawkins是美国资深防务问题分析家。此文专供本报发表，叶琦保译。

[此贴子已经被作者于2005-7-23 14:35:32编辑过]

Zhu Chenghu's blunder on nuclear bombs

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